Retrospection and Vote Choice

Evidence from Cross-sectional Studies in South Korea

Korean Politics
Electoral Politics

Park, Sanghoon, Won Mo Jang, Hyun-Hee Heo, Deok Hyun Jang, and Jaeyoung Hur. 2024. “Retrospection and Vote Choice: Evidence from Cross-sectional Studies in South Korea.” 49(3): forthcoming.

Authors
Affiliations

Political Science, Univeristy of South Carolina

Won Mo Jang

Department of Public Health and Community Medicine, Seoul Metropolitan Government-Seoul National University Boramae Medical Center

Hyun-Hee Heo

Graduate School of Public Health, Korea University

Research Analytics & Communications, Gallup Korea

Jaeyoung Hur

Global Leadership, Yonsei University

Published

March 2025

Abstract

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is a political issue that can influence individual political attitudes and cognitions. This study examines the conditions that voters make different retrospective evaluations on incumbents in nationwide legislative election behaviors during the pandemic. The findings demonstrate that the mediated retrospective evaluations of the government’s COVID- 19 countermeasure only significantly influence voting intentions for the incumbent governing party just before the election, while general government evaluations show a significant and consistent association with voting intentions in all samples regardless of survey timing. Voters with a higher trust in COVID-19 countermeasure were more likely to vote for the ruling party. Furthermore, as the election approaches, even opposition party supporters show conditional support based on the mediated retrospective evaluations. More research is needed to understand the psychological mechanisms underlying voting decisions during pandemics of emerging infectious diseases.