<!-- - [Read-only PDF](https://rdcu.be/bRhne) -->Abstract
South Korea’s upcoming 2024 general election calls for the National Assembly to reform the electoral system and establish new rules. President Yoon Seok-yeol’s media interview in January 2023 suggests implementing a multi-electoral district system. This study examines the past 16 years of municipal council elections to determine if a multi-member district system for the National Assembly’s general election will have expected effects or encounter previous issues. Findings indicate that as district size increases, dropout rates decrease, and the number of candidates running for office increases regardless of party affiliation. The predicted probability of winning for regional dominant party candidates significantly increases with district size, while minor parties and independents’ predicted probability of winning remains unchanged or decreases. Furthermore, a consistent ballot order effects in municipal council elections has been observed. Incorporating multi-member districts in general elections is more likely to replicate the issues seen in local elections for municipal council, leading to increased intra-party competition and factionalization over regional dominant parties’ nomination. Therefore, multi-member districts may not produce the desired outcomes for the National Assembly’s general election.
BibTeX citation
@article{ParkLee:2023,
Author = {Sanghoon Park, and {Chae Hoon Lee}},
Doi = {10.23018/nec.2023.1.18.001},
Journal = {The study of Election (NEC)},
Number = {1},
Pages = {5--32},
Title = {Multi-Member District and Survival of the Third Party: The Cases between the 4th and 8th Korean Local Elections},
Volume = {18},
Year = {2023}}